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AgWest Farm Credit’s 12-month outlook sees pear growers as breakeven.
Drivers include mixed fruit quality, softening prices and increasing exports.
12-Month Profitability Outlook
Fruit quality mixed
Bartlett and Anjou pear varieties appear to have favorable fruit quality in certain regions, but Boscs didn’t russet sufficiently (develop rough reddish-brown skin). Boscs make up approximately 17%-20% of total pear production. Varying fruit quality and crop size profiles are impacting pack-outs differently by region. Pack-outs are the level of fruit that goes to fresh markets, which is generally determined by fruit quality and size profile. Compared to last season, lower harvest volumes slightly offset gains in pack-out rates in the Wenatchee district, the opposite of what occurred in the Mid-Columbia district. Anecdotal reports suggest Hood River has excess small-sized fruit, which may not ship to retailers. Gains in harvest volumes offset lower pack-out rates in the Yakima district.
Pear Crop Shipments
Season-to-date shipments to retailers are slightly below average, but in line with the previous season.
Prices soften
Average pear prices fell in the fourth quarter primarily due to the oversupplied apple market (pear prices often follow apple prices) and to a lesser extent mixed fruit quality. Prices may recover later in the marketing season, but current levels will pressure producer profitability.
Season-to-Date Prices by Variety
Exports increase
Exports of Anjou and Bosc varieties are up over 2022 levels (see chart below). The largest increases occurred in Mexico, Canada and across Latin America. Strong export demand should help to support prices.
Season-to-date Exports by Country, as of December
Pear producers will likely see break-even conditions over the next 12 months. Mixed fruit quality is impacting pack-outs differently across regions. Prices have fallen primarily due to the large apple crop and this will lower producer margins. Exports are strong and should provide some upward price support.
For more information or to share your thoughts and opinions, contact the Business Management Center at 866.552.9193 or bmc@AgWestFC.com.
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