The Bureau of Economic Analysis is getting ready to release its final revision to the Q4 2017 Gross Domestic Product, which is expected to come in around 2.5 percent. This compares to real growth rates of 3.1 and 3.2 percent for the second and third quarters, respectively, and indicates economic activity is continuing to expand, albeit at a slower pace.

We’ve yet to get the official report on real GDP for the final quarter of 2017, but we’re expecting the Bureau of Economic Analysis to report the economy expanded by 2.5 percent. The economy is near full employment with the official unemployment rate at 4.1 percent, while non-farm payrolls expanded at an average of about 175,000 a month.

U.S. Treasury yields have been trending higher over the past couple weeks on better-than-expected growth in the manufacturing sector, increases in oil prices, more hawkish commentary from the Federal Reserve, increased optimism by equity markets over potential tax policy reforms, and an easing in sabre rattling by North Korea.

Last week we received the final report on Q1 real Gross Domestic Product, which indicated the economy expanded by 1.4 percent during the opening quarter of 2017. Year over year, the economy expanded at a modest 2.1 percent. Looking deeper into the report, consumer spending grew by 1.1 percent, which accounts for over two-thirds of the economy, compared to a 3.2 percent growth rate for 2015 and an average of 2.3 percent for the past five years.

For the most part, the major U.S. equity indexes have been on the up escalator since February of last year. Some analysts do not believe this type of performance can be sustained, especially on increased policy uncertainty from the Trump administration and elections in Europe.

U.S. Treasury yields are up about 30 to 40 basis points since the U.S. Presidential election on Nov. 8, 2016. The two-year yield, at 1.23 percent, is down from a seven-year high of 1.28 percent on Dec. 15, the day after the Federal Reserve increased monetary policy rates. The 10-year yield is at 2.45 percent, which is down from 2.60 percent on Dec. 15, the highest the 10-year yield has been since September 2014.

U.S. Treasury yields are well inside their one-year trading ranges with the two-year yield at 0.76 percent compared to a high of 1.09 percent in late-December 2015 and a low of 0.55 percent in October 2015. The 10-year is yielding 1.60 percent, which is up from a multi-decade low of 1.36 percent set in early-July while the high of 2.34 percent occurred in November last year.

Treasury yields are near the bottom of their one-year trading ranges with the two-year yield at 0.58 percent compared to a high of 1.09 percent in late-December and a low of 0.54 percent about a year ago. The 10-year is yielding 1.47 percent, which is up from a multi-year low set earlier this week at 1.44 percent while the high 2.46 percent occurred in mid-July last year.

The level of interest rates essentially reflects the economic outlook of investors and traders. The primary factors that influence their view include projections for economic growth, which is usually expressed as real gross domestic product, inflation and employment.

January 4, 2016 – Goodbye and farewell to 2015, a year with a 30 percent drop in the price of oil, continued gains in the dollar and the first tightening in monetary policy by the Federal Reserve in nearly a decade. And now, hello to 2016, which will likely experience continued unrest and turmoil on the geopolitical front, more rate hikes by the Fed, higher interest rates and low oil prices.