When the Federal Reserve reversed its hawkish stance of 2018 into a more supportive policy of 2019, many pundits began to forecast very weak growth for 2019. Certainly, much of the data released in January and February supported that point of view.

By all accounts, the performance of the U.S. economy in 2017 was outstanding. There was generally progress on all economic fronts.

In February 1982, the U.S. Department of Commerce joined forces with the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) to develop a new economic indicator called the Purchasing Managers’ Index, or PMI®.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy-making body. Congress has demanded that the FOMC implement policies that would satisfy the so-called dual mandate, which requires the FOMC to strive to maintain both maximum employment and price stability.

Co-authors Ing Cynthia Wu and Fan Dora Xia (Wu-Xia) argue that the federal funds rate, the major monetary policy instrument of the Federal Reserve, might not be what it seems.