October 19, 2017

Northwest FCS News

The end of October marks shortened days, and of course, all things spooky. Thus, it is a perfect time to examine some short- and long-term trends that may be a bit eerie for agriculture.

A quick read of the Wall Street Journal confirms an evolving trend being accelerated by the millennial and Gen Z generations. The Journal reviewed the dining menus for various universities and spotted a trend that shows personal wellness as a significant part of the meaningful academic experience. For example, students at University of Texas in Austin are requesting personalized menus with healthier lifestyle choices. Some universities are creating vertical gardens, or farming on the roof, and more schools are increasing their spending on local and sustainably grown foods. In another example, one university has an acre garden on the edge of campus from which it stocks its kitchens. While tuition costs have risen 400 percent in the last 30 years, the demand for healthy foods is rising much more quickly. The spooky part is that this trend is being driven by the parents of tomorrow, a fact that agriculture and every food company in the country should note.

Another spooky trend recognized by The Economist, Wall Street Journal and others focuses on the switch from fossil fuel to electric vehicles (EV). For example, France and Germany, the bigger economies in Europe, envision 25 percent of their vehicles being electric by 2025, and 75 percent by 2050. Next, in an effort to improve air quality, China plans to eventually ban gasoline engines altogether. Worldwide, both the millennial and Gen Z generations will dictate the rate of this paradigm shift.

While spooky, these trends are also interesting in the ways they will impact agricultural producers and fossil fuel production. How will commodities linked to fuel production, such as grains and sugar cane, be impacted? In addition, what are the security risks linked to these spooky trends? For example, advanced technology in the hands of terrorists, or a solar storm that compromises widespread electrical systems could both be significant risks to national and cyber security. Of course, a paradigm shift of this magnitude has happened before when automobiles replaced horses, and information and technology moved in on manufacturing. Only time will tell how far these trends will shift markets, but they certainly seem spooky, like something seen before.