I encountered several questions about the global economy from producers and lenders at a recent seminar in the Upper Midwest. Global economic trends and indicators are important to monitor. Additionally, some major issues are brewing in the minds of leaders around the globe that could impact the agriculture industry. Today, in order to predict what may happen at home, one must look elsewhere first.

Almost daily economic irregularities in emerging nations, worldwide social unrest, and political and military uncertainty weigh heavily on the fortunes of business. Historically, change in economics and technology significantly outpace political systems. This creates periods of political dysfunction like that experienced in the U.S. and abroad.

With economic challenges in many emerging nations and some developed countries, the rise of military conflict should definitely be observed. Specifically, watch oil-producing nations whose economies and social programs are extremely dependent on income from energy export. In the Middle East – and even in commodity dependent nations such as Russia, Canada, Australia and Central and South America – political and military action can develop suddenly, creating ‘black swan’ events that could abruptly sway commodity and equity markets. These types of sharp changes also affect the economics of various industries and wage earners. Additionally, situations in China and Japan are important to monitor as power struggles in Asia continue to unfold.

As the second largest economy in the world, China can easily create ‘the China affect.’ China is shifting from an infrastructure-building, manufacturing and agricultural country to a consumer service-based economy. This shift will undoubtedly come with challenges that require extensive time and energy to resolve. As part of ‘the China affect, gage the extent to which Asian countries, such as South Korea, are impacted as China’s economy continues to slow down.

Examine the southern hemisphere, including Brazil, Argentina and Latin America. Political and economic fortunes are often tied to leadership and trade collaboration with nations in Asia and Europe. Africa is also dependent on Asian and European trade. For example, the recent election in Argentina directly affects the country’s ability to export its products and impacts the larger agriculture industry.

Global trade risk continues to be a major risk for the agriculture industry. Nevertheless, opportunities abound. However, in order to take advantage of opportunities, your business must be positioned with scenario planning in your market and risk management plans, and flexibility in your overall business plan. Today’s agriculture industry is global and interconnected. Monitoring worldwide economics should be as significant in your business management as watching the weather. Often in times of uncertainty, the only consistent variable is your ability to plan.